Japan, Asia’s staunchest ally to the United States, has been conveying a clear message to presidential hopeful Donald Trump: exercise caution in negotiating with China, as any agreements might disrupt the collaborative efforts made over the years to curb Beijing’s influence and jeopardize the delicate peace in the region.
In recent weeks, Tokyo has intensified efforts to connect with individuals close to Trump, especially as the 77-year-old’s triumphs in the Republican primaries in Iowa and New Hampshire position him as a frontrunner in certain polls for the upcoming November presidential election.
The outreach, revealed in discussions with six Japanese officials, much of which has not been reported before, coincides with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida gearing up for an April state visit to the United States, following an invitation from President Joe Biden.
Tokyo’s primary concern is the possibility that if Trump reassumes office, he might pursue a trade or security arrangement between the world’s leading economies, potentially undermining recent collaborative endeavors by the Group of Seven (G7) wealthy nations to address China. This insight comes from six officials who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
While the Japanese officials don’t possess specific knowledge of Trump’s plans, their apprehensions stem from his public statements and actions during his 2017-2021 term. During that period, he showed a reluctance towards certain multilateral cooperation, defended relationships with authoritarian leaders like China’s Xi Jinping, and pursued an unsuccessful nuclear deal with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
In a July 2023 interview with Fox News, when questioned about the U.S. aiding Taiwan and the potential for conflict with China, Trump responded, “If I answer that question, it will put me in a very bad negotiating position. With that being said, Taiwan did take all of our chip business. We used to make our own chips. Now they’re made in Taiwan.”
Conclusion
Tokyo is notably anxious about the potential for increased volatility with China if Trump returns to power. In discussions with individuals perceived as close to Trump, Japan has underscored the advantages of a multilateral strategy on China policy. This includes highlighting the G7’s agreement last year to address economic coercion and reduce risks in critical supply chains, as mentioned by two Japanese officials.
Unlike Biden, who has affirmed the U.S. commitment to defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion, albeit with subsequent clarification from the White House, Trump’s stance on this matter has been less definitive.
There is speculation among officials and analysts that Kishida, facing declining ratings due to party scandals, may not be in office during the November 5 U.S. presidential election. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is required to conduct a leadership vote by the end of September.
